Bubble watch: Surging Colorado State snags Mountain West automatic bid. Who might that knock out?

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble picture:

Rams on a roll

Colorado State's winning streak is at 10, and the Rams are headed to the NCAA Tournament after winning the Mountain West's automatic bid with a victory over Boise State on Saturday. Since Colorado State was considered a fairly unlikely at-large candidate, that means the Rams now take a spot away from another bubble team.

That team might actually be Boise State, which was in the field according to some projections. One of the big questions on Selection Sunday is whether the Mountain West will get five bids or four — or perhaps even three.

Close call

No. 16 Memphis held on for a one-point win over Tulane in the AAC Tournament, and Virginia Commonwealth advanced in the Atlantic 10. If either of those teams lose, it will enter the at-large pool, which would be bad news for the rest of the bubble.

UC San Diego — another potential at-large candidate — gave the bubble a bit of a reprieve by winning the automatic bid in the Big West.

The experts say ...

ESPN's last four in: Vanderbilt, San Diego State, Xavier, Indiana.

Sports Illustrated's last four in: Arkansas, San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State.

ESPN's first four out: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio State.

Sports Illustrated's first four out: Texas, North Carolina, Xavier, UC Irvine.

Up next

Only two games matter Sunday for bubble purposes: Memphis against Alabama-Birmingham in the AAC final, and VCU against George Mason for the Atlantic 10 bid.

Automatic bids so far

SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley), Omaha (Summit), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Drake (Missouri Valley), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt), Robert Morris (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (Coastal Athletic), St. Francis, Pa. (Northeast), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), American (Patriot), Montana (Big Sky), Bryant (America East), Norfolk State (MEAC), Colorado State (Mountain West), Houston (Big 12), St. John's (Big East), Akron (MAC), Mount St. Mary's (MAAC), Duke (ACC), Liberty (Conference USA), UC San Diego (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC).